Havana Rey, What Happened?

Havana Rey ran as a heavily backed $1.90 favorite over 1600m at Warwick Farm on 26/1/13. Unfortunately for his supporters the result was a last placing beaten 19.5 lengths.

Roll forward to his next start, also over 1600m at Warwick Farm on 9/2/13 and if you could make the leap of faith to 'stick firm', the reward was a first placing with the handsome dividend of $8.00.

What could possibly explain such a turn of events? The trainer, jockey, stewards and racing media leapt on the fact he had failed previously over 1900m with 'blinkers-on' and believe the removal of 'blinkers' did the trick. But he had won twice with 'blinkers-on' over 1600m at Warwick Farm in the previous preparation? One thing is certain; on the 26/1/13 Havana Rey ran the first segment of the race way 'too fast'. It was a perfect example of the fact that once a horse distributes energy in a fashion which causes it to reach its 'collapse' point, it will usually fail spectacularly.

Punting Form has recently released a 200m increment sectional time analysis product called Sectional Pro Form. This enables a thorough investigation of energy expenditure in past races. From the table below we can see that on the first occasion Havana Rey went out 21.9 lengths faster than the 'All Average Benchmark' pace. This compares with a figure of 9.8 lengths (fast) at his next winning start.

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Our own preference is to look at race pace in terms of what would be expected for the 'class' of race. By selecting 'Cls Bmark Var L' from the dropdown box, we can now see Havana Rey went out 12.6 lengths fast on the first occasion compared with a figure of 0.6 lengths fast at his next winning start.

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It is certainly a fact that Havana Rey's early pace at the start subsequent to a 20 length defeat at $1.90, was spot-on when considering the class of race being contested. Whether that was due to the horse being more tractable as a result of taking the blinkers off (and fitting a tongue tie), or just a better judged ride by G Schofield is open to debate. At least by referring to Sectional Pro Form, some facts and figures can be bought to the debate table.

Following is a comprehensive view of the portion of 'horse form' applicable to the period in question.

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Detailed Results and Sectional Time Analysis for Warwick Farm, Race 2, 26/1/13


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Graphical Representation of the Class Speed Benchmark, 26/1/13

Note: The zero line represents that expected for the class of race. Below the line indicates faster than expected……above the line, slower than that expected.

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 Detailed Results and Sectional Time Analysis for Warwick Farm, Race 8, 9/2/13


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 Graphical Representation of the Class Speed Benchmark, 9/2/13

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Comments

Punting Form posted this comment 02/24/2013 13:03:25 PM

Lol - typically Havanna Rey wins on the weekend and I didn't back it. Damn!!!