Place bet Systems

Any plans to incorporate place bet systems
Know plenty of guys who make a living off place betting, would love to see if we could build some systems based on mid tote prices

Alternatively, are there any plans to provide additional stats such as place wins, place%, median dividend, etc?

84.04% PoT
13.7% Win%
????% Place%
52 Wins
???? Places
379 Hits
13.41 Avg. D.
???? Med. D.
101 High D.
2.4 Low D.

The reason I ask is two of my systems (which I subscribe to) are extremely profitable for place getters but not so good for winners.

Place
164% POT
60% Strike

Win
–5% POT
30% Strike

It would be interesting to see if the same occurs with other systems,

Cheers,
James

I also have systems that I base on place results but show a mediocre win percentage. Would love to see the place results graphed.

In the past I had seen too many of what I thought would be good winners end up second by a nose so I started to concentrate on place betting. Keeps the betting bank balance more stable also.

Thank you Taxman for bring this up.

Just to prove my point about displaying place stats:

In the last 3 days, two of my systems (which I subscribe to) have generated a combined total of 11 hits. Of those, there was 1 winner (–27% PoT) and 5 place getters (165% PoT).

27/09/18 Armidale R5 5 New Endeavour 6th
27/09/18 Bendigo R6 12 Turn the Tide 2nd $8.00
27/09/18 Hawkesbury R8 2 Eerised 7th
26/09/18 Belmont R4 3 Kelly's Secret 4th
26/09/18 Gawler R6 5 Ambishop 4th
25/09/18 Grafton R1 5 Dark Image 2nd $2.10
25/09/18 Grafton R3 10 Shakespearean 8th
25/09/18 Grafton R4 1 She's Choosie 1st $3.00 $1.50
25/09/18 Grafton R6 8 Madam Kate 5th
25/09/18 Grafton R7 11 Vivid Image 2nd $2.90
25/09/18 Launceston R1 10 White Gazelle 2nd $17.00


Cheers,
James

I've been manually backtesting some of my systems for placings in excel and it's laborious to say the least. I'd be all for this, but what odds would we use for analysis? Can't quite do mid tote as we're missing one. BSP would probably be a good benchmark.

Mid tote seems to be nip or tuck 15% of the top tote win price longterm I've found. Maybe someone can share their experience on this?

Which leads me to ask where you got your prices for your horse placings boags? They're impressive placings regardless, but mid tote prices are a bit lower than the prices you've listed. Not meaning to sound doubtful, it's just that my approach to place systems is to be conservative with the achievable odds so that you really get an idea if it's a profitable system for all bettors across the board longterm.

Hi Min,

The prices came from www.punters.com.au (My tipping results).

I haven't compared their prices, but now that you mention it I probably should.

I thought I would give www.punters.com.au a try, seeing they do a lot of the record keeping for you. Saves a lot of time and you can still export the stats into a MS Excel file for further analysis.

I just started this week, adding in my puntingform.com.au daily sections into punters.com.au to see how they play out... I realize it's still earlier stages.

Cheers,
James

Don't go by Punters place results. Biggest falsehood. Their place results are from highest odds on offer pre–jump. Many profitable place systems on Punters will underperform for any bettor, to the point of loss in many instances. Totally unachievable odds long or shortterm.

Sports betting is my thing and horseracing is the final frontier for me. But labouring over data to ensure high quality has meant predictable profits and drawdowns year after year. Very good for the nerves.

Not sure the process of historical odds procurement for commercial use, but if PF could nail down mid tote results even for the last 5ish years, that would be sensational!

Furthermore,

By adding in my puntingform.com.au daily sections into punters.com.au ("my tips") you get a combined performance outcome for all your systems... just like having your own portfolio.

Whereas, puntingform.com.au provides performance stats on individual systems only, which I copy and paste into MS Excel to get an overall result on all my systems combined.

Cheers,
James

27/09/18 Bendigo R6 12 Turn the Tide 2nd $8.00 – MT $6.60
25/09/18 Grafton R1 5 Dark Image 2nd $2.10 – MT $2.00
25/09/18 Grafton R4 1 She's Choosie 1st $3.00 $1.50 – MT $1.40
25/09/18 Grafton R7 11 Vivid Image 2nd $2.90 – MT $2.70
25/09/18 Launceston R1 10 White Gazelle 2nd $17.00 MT $13.30

Here are your mid tote results Boags, we have a combined odds from Punters of 31.5 vs 26 from MT. MT is around 17% worse off. Just something to consider when forecasting/reporting.

I'm only pointing this out mate as I've been through the same process and this was a vital education when sculpting longterm profitable placing systems.

Good work on your personal win based systems BTW. You've done some great work :)

And the other thing that annoys me about punters is that you can only tip 1 horse per race? What happens if you get more than one system hit per race? Tippingsports might be better suited and also utilises BSP prices for win and place. Multiple tips on a single race can be entered.

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LAY SYSTEMS

G'day G–man,

just quickly, there's one called "4 and 5".....and I have one called "LAY LADY LAY".
2 lay systems, but totally different...….one with heaps of action, the latter, not so.
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3/16/2019 11:05:33 AM 14 Replies

"Bets Sheets" and "Today's Bet Sheet" missing qualifiers?

From another thread:
Harlem paid $31 SP (see Racing Australia website for official SP).
Looking at the System results on the day after the race (Sunday) would have been too early for Tote prices to have been available in our results database; that is why the Best of SP, NSW and Vic would have been shown as $31.00. System results update for any new data (new to our database) for a period up to 2 days later. If you check that system for that runner, you will find it now accounts for the Tote Prices as well.

As for any other issues mentioned, there is a high probability that similar explanations apply. A lot of information comes into our database at different times, which must then be transferred to other areas, cached etc etc.
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3/13/2019 2:32:30 PM 3 Replies

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Hi James,
Harlem paid $31 SP (see Racing Australia website for official SP).
Looking at the System results on the day after the race (Sunday) would have been too early for Tote prices to have been available in our results database; that is why the Best of SP, NSW and Vic would have been shown as $31.00. System results update for any new data (new to our database) for a period up to 2 days later. If you check that system for that runner, you will find it now accounts for the Tote Prices as well.
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3/13/2019 2:25:04 PM 14 Replies

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