QUESTION FOR THE "NEWBIES"

Question:

As a new member of this site, what do you look for?
Where do you go first??
Is it "Recent Winners"?
Or "Top Public Systems"??...........or somewhere else??

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Generally top public systems and look for best ROI, strike rate don’t mean much if the tips don’t pay well. I’m still struggling with a few of the price ranked horses reading the races etc

Hi bootrouse;when you say the "price ranked horses" give you difficulty is it working out which selections may or may not be in the systems price range? As you subscribe to a couple of my systems which have minimum price criteria I thought offering my approach may help.
I take the fixed price on Bet 365 at 9am [when I generally place my bets] as the only price guide so if the system states a price above $8 then $8.50 fixed must be the minimum available.I place half my stake at fixed and the other half best tote.I don't worry about price firming or blowing;if a winner is missed so be it ,it's the disciplined approach that counts.
One other observation I would make is prefer a system with at least 18 months history[a lot longer is preferable] as many fly high for a few months before running out of steam.
Cheers Doug

My preference:


1. Start with top public systems

2. Time period: "Since Creation"

3. Sort by highest to lowest ROI

4. Working down the list click on the system name which should open up a second new webpage/tab while still keeping the list available in the first page.

5. For each system you click on, change the Time period setting to: "Last 3 months" (from there on it will remain the default period for this exercise)

6. By process of elimination, disregard all systems that don't show a profit within the last 3 months. This should produce a less number of systems to choose from that are relevant to the current racing season or today's trends (not so much what happened 12 months ago or 3 years ago).

There are a lot of systems that show a career profit "since creation" over a number of years, which may look impressive as it's difficult to achieve, but many of them show a loss during the last 12 months. As a punter, do you subscribe to those systems and hope for a turnaround? I would certainly monitor those systems and wait for them to pick up again once they show a profit within the last 3 months, then jump on–board.

That's my theory.

Cheers,
James

Dead right James, systems which show profit over a number of years but a loss in the last 3 months should be ignored as successful systems. Historical information itself should not be ignored, but current profit is the only measure of success.

I forgot to mention that none of my profitable systems are proven, as they are all less than 6 months old "since creation" and very green.

I wouldn't recommend subscribing to them at this stage, unless someone thought there's an obvious increase in ROI "since creation"... I'm still waiting.

The method I use to determine this (assuming the system is 6 months or older) is to change the time period setting from "since creation" to "Last 3 months". If the ROI is greater in the last 3 months than the ROI "since creation" then maybe it's a winning system... at least for the time being.

After all, what is a winning system?

In my opinion it all comes down to the precise moment and comparing apples with apples. Selecting the right system at the right time.

For example; a wet spring in rural Australia in 2018 might compare differently to a dry spring in 2017 and 2016 and so on. There are hundreds of different scenarios that can have an effect on one year's results compared to another. I guess that's why sectional times are so important as they are more reliable than systems that compare horses for courses and don't allow for abnormalities.

Having more than 10 years of data provides us with a great advantage, but in my opinion, it should only be used to compare seasons (or years) to study seasonal patterns rather than combine them. Again if 2010–2014 performed poorly or differently to 2015–2018 than why shouldn't you eliminate those earlier years? There may have been a drought in 2010–2014 which may not effect the Metro tracks so much, but certainly would have an effect on country tracks which all come into the equation unless you filter them out as well as other factors.

Putting all that aside, there's also the luck factor, when you might be lucky enough to jump onboard a system just before a winning streak, or be unlucky and jump onboard at the end of a winning streak... Is it a winning system? The punter who jumped onboard early will tell you it is, whereas the punter who jumped onboard late will tell you it isn't.

The other big question is how long do you stay faithful to a particular system?

?????? You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run ??????

Cheers,
James

Bugger, the system removed my music symbols at the chorus.

Elf said:

Dead right James, systems which show profit over a number of years but a loss in the last 3 months should be ignored as successful systems. Historical information itself should not be ignored, but current profit is the only measure of success.

Well said Elf, you summed it all up in three lines.

Hi Boages,
I am a subscriber to 2 of your systems Kosciusko and Improving Types. I am enjoying the tips, but I would like it more if I had a better staking plan. Do you happen to have a list of each systems results (as opposed to the last 100 only that we get here). I can better structure my betting then. Cheers. smedlexjunk@gmail.com

Cheers

smedlex said:

Hi Boages,
I am a subscriber to 2 of your systems Kosciusko and Improving Types. I am enjoying the tips, but I would like it more if I had a better staking plan. Do you happen to have a list of each systems results (as opposed to the last 100 only that we get here). I can better structure my betting then. Cheers. smedlexjunk@gmail.com

Cheers

Hi smedlex,

Have sent you an email.

Cheers,
James

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