LAY SYSTEMS

Hi; I have been trying to create systems to use to lay favourites/2nd favourites on Betfair but have had limited success achieving a loss on turnover below 30% which I believe to be necessary given the SP spread plus commission.I know this can be done by laying the real roughies but obviously laying shorter priced horses is less stressful.

Do any of the more experienced system makes have any suggestions.

Thanks Doug

It’s a little hard getting any system to show good lay results on here because it is designed for backing systems. You also need Betfair results to be able to work out a system.

Take it from me, laying the favourite or 2nd favourite after Commission will kill your bank. I lay roughies some from systems I make on here. I try for a 40% plus LOT and lay to BSP to a liability, that way you can lay below the minimum and restrict your losses if the unwanted happens. Another way there are always Donkeys running everyday that have no hope which if you layed them and stopped at a 1% return on your bank each day, over time you will do quite well.

My best system in laying comes from laying the field.

We have the software written for the correct implementation of Lay Systems using Betfair SP with commission taken into account. It also needs to report performance/profitability a little differently to that normally associated with Back or Win betting. This involves the full concept of turnover based on Liability. Anyway, we have a bit more testing to do and then it will be rolled out.

Think counter intuitively.

When bracketing all favorites, they win at a consistent percentage irrespective of any presumed favorable form aspects or unfavorable form aspects.

Therefore the aim is not to find a favorite that should underperform due to its "unfavorable form aspects" but one that the market will overbet due presumed "favorable form aspects"

Essentially win percentage will remain fairly constant regardless, so try to target horses that are bet too heavily and present lower average odds.
Target the areas of form guide that are blatantly visible to everyone and that are perceived to be essential to finding a winner.

That been said 30% may be difficult. (below $3) But if your average odds are low, you may not need it to be at such a number.

Thanks for the input guys; I have created 3 systems to use but all only give 1 or 2 selections per week. The best has a 67% LOT with the basic rules as follows;Placed 2nd or 3rd last 3 starts,1to 6 wins,last start 15+ days ago on different track,Weight 55kg+. Lay if $5 to $10 on fixed odds [probably $6 to $12 BFair].

I'm also trying to lay Place Only horses under $1.50[place odds BF] using a progressive staking plan but finding it hard mentally to place lay something that looks a certainty;overcome this and I might have a profitable edge.

Being 70 years old with all the time in the world to sit in front of a computer is an advantage when using Betfair but also throws up the temptation to overbet.Having systems as a strategy helps control the ruinous urges.
Cheers Doug

Hi Dougmac,

I came across this thread after reading yours. Perhaps we should revisit this discussion again:

Lay Systems on PUNTINGform
http://www.puntingform.com.au/racing/forum/?topicId=116


and this one as well:

http://www.puntingform.com.au/racing/forum/?topicId=92


Cheers,
James

Dougmac,

Don't forget to divide the POT(LOT) by the average odds, as that will be your liability and therefore turnover.

any update on betfair integration?

Most of the development work and testing is complete for the introduction of dedicated Lay Systems. We just need to finalise some more work with Betfair to enable automatic update of BFSP results moving forward.

update on BFSP?

Lay Systems or analysis using BFSP for win bets as well, has been a victim of getting shuffled around in the development/implementation priority queue.

However, the topic did come up in discussions again yesterday (internally) and we are aiming to have it rolled out next week.

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