Roughies / longshots

Anyone have some advice on criteria that will separate roughies (e.g. odds 15+) with a chance from those that will not have a chance?

Thanks for any assistance.

Hi Ozito; My systems tend to be roughie oriented but some of my criteria cannot be used on system builder eg: I eliminate runners from all systems that have been beaten 10 lengths+ in 2 of last 3 starts.

Using system builder criteria some I use are Trainer Percentage [generally 6%+] Runs since last placing [max 6]Place Strike Rate [always above 16%] and beaten margin last start [often less than 6 lengths].


While the "dream system" has a 10% Win rate at an average price of $26 reality is that seeking out roughies entails the dreaded long losing run as inevitable.Neverless we keep on searching.


Good luck Doug

Hi Oz,

When selecting roughies I ask myself the following.

Is the horse fit?
Is the horse showing any form?

For me, "last start winners" are usually a good indicator that a horse is fit and in form regardless of its starting price. After that there's a fair amount of luck. With roughies, you can tear your hair out trying to analyze how or why they won their last race, particularly when they haven't run the distance before, new track, new jockey, etc, etc. What works for one roughie, doesn't usually work for another. But if the horse won its last start, then that's a good foundation to begin with I think.

Anyway, below is a criteria for roughies that might be a good starting point. You should be able to improve on this with some fine tuning.

Basic Criteria

System Date Range: 23 Sep, 2017 – 23 Sep, 2018 (Last 12 Months)

Next Start: CLASS CHANGE: UP, SAME
Last Start: > $20
Last Start: TRACK LOCATION: PROVINCIAL
Last Start: WON LAST RUN


Systems calculated using a Flat Staking plan = $11,250.00 AUD PROFIT

90.36% PoT
12.9% Win%
32 Wins
249 Hits
14.81 Avg. D.
101 High D.
2.4 Low D.

Good luck.

Cheers,
James

... One other thing,

I try to avoid using the following filters:

Next Start: Price (I prefer Last Start: Price)
Rankings: All of them (although I love playing around with these filters)

The reason being, scratchings and price fluctuations can cause all sorts of problems with systems that rely on these filters and will often change your daily selections (hits) drastically. I find it difficult to stay glued to the computer for every race. Others might feel differently about this.

Cheers,
James

Thanks fellas, appreciated!

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